Ms. Rodriguez, Macroeconomics 2301 June 30, 2005 The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq The drums of war beating as the United States marches, two steps forward and one step backward, towards war. However, although cost estimates are often ignored when war is debated, most people recognize that the costs in dollars, and especially in blood, are acceptable only as long as they are low. If the casualty estimates amounts to the thousands, if the war pushes the economy into deep recession or requires a large tax increase, and if the United States becomes an outsider in the world because of brutal attacks on civilian populations, then decisions makers in the White House and the Congress might not post so expeditiously to battle. Given the salience of cost, it is surprising that there have been no systemic public analyses of the economics of a military conflict in Iraq. This essay attempts to fill the gap. It is recognized that the estimates here are virtually certain to be wrong, for the fog of war extends far beyond the battlefield to include forecasts of political and eco......

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